SCOTUS Gun Watch 5/13/2026
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in three major Second Amendment cases Monday, leaving circuit court splits unresolved on assault weapon bans, magazine capacity limits, and concealed carry restrictions. The denials affect Miller v. Bonta challenging California's assault weapon ban, Association of New Jersey Rifle & Pistol Clubs v. Attorney General New Jersey targeting the state's 10-round magazine limit, and Young v. Hawaii concerning open carry restrictions. Gun rights groups had hoped the Court would clarify the scope of the Bruen standard after lower courts reached conflicting interpretations. Justice Thomas noted no dissents from denial, suggesting the justices may want more percolation time on these constitutional questions before weighing in definitively.
Background and Context
These cases represent the most significant Second Amendment questions to reach the Court since New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen in 2022. The Miller case involves California's Assault Weapons Control Act, which bans firearms like AR-15s and AK-47s. The Ninth Circuit upheld the ban 7-4, finding assault weapons fall outside Second Amendment protection. The ANJRPC case challenges New Jersey's magazine capacity law limiting ammunition feeding devices to 10 rounds. The Third Circuit split 2-1 upholding the restriction. Young v. Hawaii concerns the state's near-total prohibition on open carry, with the Ninth Circuit ruling 7-4 that no right to public carry exists where concealed carry permits are available. Each case creates tension with other circuit decisions and Bruen's text-and-history methodology.
What This Means for Gun Owners
Gun owners face continued legal uncertainty as conflicting circuit court rulings remain in effect. California residents still cannot purchase new assault weapons or standard capacity magazines. New Jersey gun owners must comply with the 10-round magazine limit or face felony charges. Hawaii maintains its restrictive carry regime with both open and concealed carry effectively prohibited for most residents. However, cert denials are not merits decisions. The Court often waits for clearer circuit splits before granting review. Gun rights advocates should continue challenging similar laws in other circuits to create the conflict necessary for Supreme Court intervention. State-level political action remains crucial as legal challenges face an uncertain timeline. Gun owners in affected states must comply with current restrictions while appeals continue.
Industry Impact
Firearms manufacturers face continued market fragmentation as different states maintain incompatible regulations. Companies like Daniel Defense, BCM, and Aero Precision cannot sell standard AR-15 configurations in California, requiring expensive compliance versions. Magazine manufacturers like Magpul lose sales in capacity-restricted states. The lack of clarity forces manufacturers to design products for the most restrictive jurisdictions or maintain separate product lines. Retailers struggle with complex state-by-state compliance requirements. However, the pending cases in other circuits may force the Court's hand within two years. Industry groups like NSSF continue funding strategic litigation aimed at creating the circuit splits necessary for eventual Supreme Court review. The economic impact of patchwork regulations costs the industry hundreds of millions annually in compliance and lost sales.
What to Watch Next
Several cases moving through lower courts could force the Supreme Court to act. Bianchi v. Frosh challenging Maryland's assault weapon ban awaits Fourth Circuit rehearing en banc. Ocean State Tactical v. Rhode Island targets that state's magazine ban in the First Circuit. The Fifth Circuit will hear Cargill v. Garland on bump stock regulations next month. If these cases create clearer circuit splits with Monday's denied cases, the Court may have to grant review by next term. Congress shows no signs of federal action on these issues. State legislatures in blue states continue passing stricter laws while red states expand gun rights. The 2026 midterm elections could shift the political landscape. Gun rights groups plan coordinated challenges to create maximum pressure for Supreme Court review.
DownRange Bottom Line: Monday's cert denials disappoint but don't end the fight. The Court wants clearer circuit splits before diving into post-Bruen questions about assault weapons and magazine limits. Keep challenging bad laws and building the legal record for inevitable Supreme Court review.
