SCOTUS Gun Watch 5/18
The Supreme Court issued no gun rights decisions this week and took no new Second Amendment cases. The justices continue processing certification petitions on assault weapon bans from Illinois and Washington state, plus carry permit challenges from California and New York. Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett have not indicated when the court will rule on pending petitions. The next scheduled conference is May 23, where justices will discuss at least four firearms-related cert petitions. Gun rights groups filed three new petitions this month challenging state laws on ammunition sales, magazine capacity limits, and concealed carry training requirements.
Background and Context
The court has avoided major gun cases since New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen in 2022. That decision established strict scrutiny for Second Amendment cases and struck down New York's "may issue" carry permit system. Lower courts have applied Bruen inconsistently across the country. The Seventh Circuit upheld Illinois' assault weapon ban in February, while the Fifth Circuit struck down similar laws in Texas. California's magazine capacity limits remain in legal limbo after the Ninth Circuit's divided ruling last year. Justice Thomas authored the Bruen majority opinion but has not signaled his views on current petitions. The court typically grants cert in four cases per thousand petitions filed.
What This Means for Gun Owners
Gun owners face a patchwork of conflicting state laws while waiting for Supreme Court clarity. Washington state's assault weapon ban remains in effect pending federal court challenges. Illinois gun owners cannot buy AR-15 rifles or standard capacity magazines under that state's ban. California residents still face the state's 10-round magazine limit despite ongoing litigation. Concealed carry permit holders must check state reciprocity agreements before traveling. The Bruen decision strengthened carry rights but left many other gun laws untested. Legal experts expect the court to take at least one major gun case next term. Gun rights attorneys have filed strategic challenges in multiple circuits to create the splits that prompt Supreme Court review.
Industry Impact
Firearms manufacturers report uneven sales patterns due to legal uncertainty. Smith & Wesson moved its headquarters from Massachusetts to Tennessee citing hostile state regulations. Ruger and other companies have stopped shipping certain products to restrictive states. Gun retailers in border areas see increased sales from customers in ban states. The National Shooting Sports Foundation estimates that assault weapon bans affect $2.8 billion in annual sales. Magazine manufacturers like Magpul have relocated production facilities to gun-friendly states. Legal compliance costs have increased for dealers operating in multiple states. Some manufacturers now produce state-specific versions of popular firearms to meet varying regulations.
What to Watch Next
The May 23 conference will address cert petitions from Bevis v. Naperville (Illinois assault weapon ban), Bonta v. Duncan (California magazine limits), and Rhode v. Becerra (ammunition background checks). Gun rights groups need four justices to vote for cert review. Justice Kavanaugh has expressed interest in magazine capacity cases based on his prior circuit court opinions. The court could also add gun cases to next term's docket through June. State attorneys general from 25 states filed amicus briefs supporting assault weapon challenges. The Biden administration will likely oppose cert in all pending gun cases. Oral arguments for any accepted cases would begin in October 2024.
DownRange Bottom Line: The Supreme Court's silence on gun rights creates dangerous uncertainty for millions of Americans. Every week of delay means more states pass unconstitutional restrictions while law-abiding citizens lose their rights.
